Wall Street Weekahead: Gap between vaccine hopes and pandemic reality poses market hazard

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As winter approaches, U.S. equity investors are weighing brightening prospects for a COVID-19 vaccine against a resurgence of the pandemic across the United States.

FILE PHOTO: A street sign for Wall Street is seen outside the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan, New York City, U.S. December 28, 2016. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly

Still, the pandemic remained an immediate threat as the number of U.S. deaths from the disease has climbed to 250,000. The S&P 500 fell more than 1% on Wednesday as New York City announced the closure of public schools. Further signs the pandemic is growing more severe could stir volatility in U.S. stocks. The Cboe Volatility Index, known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” fell sharply after the U.S. presidential election but has leveled off and remains above its long-term average near 20. VIX futures also reflect elevated expectations for market gyrations throughout the first half of 2021.

Some strategists anticipate a bid to haven currencies as a hedge against market declines. TD Securities strategists wrote on Tuesday that they expect the dollar, which has weakened this month, to gain for a brief period in part due to “evolving COVID realities.” Societe Generale has recommended options strategies that would benefit from a strengthening in the yen.

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