Stock market crash: Expert warns of 66% plunge, negative returns - Business Insider

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'The unwinding of this bubble is going to be painful': A renowned stock bear says today's investors can expect negative returns for the next 12 years — and warns of a looming 66% stock plunge

That's what John Hussman — the former economics professor turned president of the who's known for his persistently bearish views — said in a recent client note in reference to today's stock market.

He continued: "Conversely, risk-averse investors may drive the price down to $46 today, in which case current holders will be distressed and upset. Yet that's also a price from which they can expect to obtain an 8% annual return over the subsequent decade." Below is Hussman's proprietary estimated 12-year annual total return for a conventional portfolio compared against the actual subsequent 12-year returns for that portfolio to help demonstrate this idea. His projections have never been lower. As of November 13, his model forecasted a -1.56% return for the next 12 years.Still, valuations are only one side of the equation.

 

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