In the long-term, stocks mostly go up. That single piece of advice has formed the core of many trillions of dollars of investment decisions. But it isn’t without detractors.
If an investor had entered the market in December 1989, the very peak of the Japanese equity bubble, it may well have looked pretty bleak at times. For considerable periods over the past 32 years, an investor saving around 10,000 Japanese yen, the equivalent of about $95, per month would have been better off having kept it all in cash.
But what about the poor souls who invested before the crash? Didn’t they lose a lot? The short answer for long-term investors again is perhaps not. Equity returns were so explosive in the years prior to the bubble bursting that many were never left underwater. Even at the market’s nadir in April 2003, an investor who had bought 20 years earlier would have an 83% return.
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