rallied. But investors looking for an all-clear signal to be sounded didn't get one as tech sold off to end the week with 10-year Treasury bond yields hitting a one-year high on Friday., but with Fed chairman Jerome Powell expected to maintain his dovish stance, some bond and stock market experts are looking a little further out, to the May-July period, as a key one for investors.
"It's the speed that is of greatest concern to investors," according to CFRA chief investment strategist Sam Stovall. "There is naturally going to be an increase in inflation and we have been spoiled because it's been below two percent for many years.
Some of the year-over-year comparisons in the inflation numbers, such as commodities which plunged last year, are to be expected.But there is evidence in various commodity sectors of sustained gains, and upward pricing pressure in residential real estate, which is not measured as part of core inflation, but is an economic ramification of inflationary conditions.
"If there was a guarantee that we only see a near-term pick up in inflation and rates and as we move past Q2, which looks drastically stronger than 2020, a guarantee the second half would see moderation in inflation and rates, investors would not be concerned," he said. For bonds to be a real competitor to stocks, rates have to go over 3%, and until the market is close to that, Altfest says any effect from the bond market on stocks is dwarfed by economic growth potential and the outlook for corporate profits.
"Exactly those sectors which do best in a steepening yield curve environment," Stovall said. "As the Fed continues to dig in its heels on not raising rates those are the sectors that do well."
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