MICHEL PIREU: Successful market trading boils down to an even temperament

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Eternal pessimists and optimists find it difficult to change behaviour, which can result in terrible investment decisions

“One cannot but pity the man with sallow face and sluggish gait,” Henry Clews wrote in 1908, “who, when everybody else is feeling the happy impulse of a common prosperity, persists in believing that the country is going to the dogs, and steadily sells stocks while everybody else is buying them. He is simply ruining himself through unconsciousness that he views everything through bilious spectacles.

Clews was, of course, talking about the ceaseless pessimist or optimist, whose behaviour studies show may be at least partially influenced by genetics and, as such, a trait of temperament which makes it difficult to change.

“When you hear of a bad railroad accident you can’t picture yourself as being on a train at such a time. When the insurance company tells you that your life expectancy is a certain number of years, you secretly expect to live considerably longer than that, because of your belief that you yourself are especially blessed.

“I am convinced,” said Clews, “that many a highly intelligent person has no business dabbling with stocks at all, because they are too handicapped by temperament not suited to this particular game. To begin with, the stock market is no place for a person who lets strong convictions take root in his mind and stay there. Another group, and it is a large group, who should stay away from Wall Street, is made up of those who expect the good things in life to come too easily.

 

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