If the recent call for an end to new oil and gas exploration by the International Energy Agency, long the most loyal friend of the oil industry, did not underscore that the world is changing, “Black Wednesday” made it inescapable.
Coal and oil fuel an unsustainable 90% of electricity generation. The government has committed to reducing dependence on coal by half in 2030, but this is insufficient, and it will undoubtedly be forced to further reduce it sooner than planned. Domestic gas exploration is delivering results, with Total leading the discovery of offshore reserves estimated at about 60-trillion cubic feet . This alone would fulfil half of current demand, solving the incoming deficit but falling well-short of future requirements. Again swimming against the tide, government is also taking a second look at shale gas as the world moves away from it. In addition, liquefied natural gas imports can bring gas at a competitive price as the only alternative.
The three LNG projects under way involve oil and gas majors, including Exxon, Total, ENI, China National Petroleum Corporation, Japan’s Mitsui and national companies from India, Thailand and Portugal. Each of the projects involves initial multi-billion dollar investments as well as follow-on expansions for a decades-long investment rollout of $100bn . Revenue estimates currently hover around $500bn . To put this in perspective, Mozambique’s GDP was $15bn and SA’s was $220bn in 2019.
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