Employment Looking Better But Labor Market Will Remain Tight

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Employment looks much better in the latest jobs report. But the labor market will remain tight for a while, and the long-run trend, driven by demographics, will keep hiring difficult throughout this decade.

Child care has been a problem for some people, given school closures. But detailed data show that women are increasingly working or looking for work.

Our next hypothesis is that bonus unemployment insurance payments have kept people at home. The regular unemployment insurance pays about half of the prior wage, with details varying by state. Congress authorized an extra $600 a week last year, now $300 a week, due to expire in September. People who had been earning less than $15 an hour are better off with the bonus unemployment than returning to work.

Another hypothesis for workers not applying for open positions is past stimulus payments. Some people work when they need money, and they won’t go looking for a job until they run out of cash. Stimulus checks went out in December 2020 and again in March 2021. For non-working people, most of the money has probably been spent by now, though possibly not be those also receiving the bonus unemployment benefits. Time will reduce the number of people influenced by the direct stimulus payment.

 

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