NEW YORK, April 30 — A volatile stock market faces a critical test next week, when the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates and give more insight on its plans for tightening monetary policy to fight surging inflation.
Compounding concerns over monetary policy, investors have been riled by everything from rising bond yields to the war in Ukraine and more recently lockdowns in China. The market is also entering a historically weaker six-month period for stocks. “If the Fed continues to expect high levels of inflation and they don’t see it moderating in the future, that will be a concern for investors,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. “It will mean that the Fed will continue to raise rates and tighten monetary policy, which the market is expecting, but maybe even more aggressively.”
Given that there are indications inflation has started to peak, said Kei Sasaki, senior portfolio manager at Northern Trust Wealth Management, “if there is an even more resounding hawkish tone coming out of that meeting, then that could certainly be viewed as negative.” As investors have girded for tighter monetary policy, bond yields have jumped this year, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note up to about 2.9 per cent from 1.5 per cent at the end of 2021.
To be sure, after the market’s recent slide, the Fed’s actions could provide some comfort. Following the Fed’s expected rate hike in March, the S&P 500 rallied more than 8 per cent over the ensuing two weeks.
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