Emerging markets have effectively been excluded from raising funds in hard currency bond markets, with Tellimer research showing that emerging market governments were absent from foreign-currency bond markets in July — the first time there have been no new issuances since December 2019, according to aEmerging market currencies have taken a beating across the board since June, with the dollar’s safe-haven status seeing most of the investor funds flowing into the greenback over the past two...
Year to date, the domestic currency is still some 4% weaker and Investec economist Annabel Bishop notes it is currently unlikely that the rand will rapidly strengthen back to the levels it achieved earlier this year. She says the market’s cheery reaction to the Fed’s recent interest rate hike is “curious, given that the Fed did not appear particularly dovish with its latest decision, nor did it signal a coming pivot from its aggressive tightening path”.
Even without taking into account these considerations, there is historical evidence that suggests financial markets, and emerging markets, will be subject to the higher levels of volatility that typically prevail during August and September when investors go on their summer holiday and thin trading activity exacerbates market responses to new information.
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