That is more than 200 basis points higher than the current benchmark overnight interest rate and compares with a projected peak of about 3.7% just a month ago.
Those hopes were dashed this week when the U.S. consumer price index for August showed inflation rose 8.3% on an annualized basis, more than economists’ forecasts of 8.1%. Expectations of a more hawkish Fed have also boosted real yields, which show how much an investor can make on an annualized basis holding a U.S. government bond and dull the allure of riskier assets when they rise.
Meanwhile benchmark 10-year Treasury yields have climbed about 8 basis points this week to 3.443%, flirting with a new 11-year high if they go above the 3.495% level they hit in June. Goldman Sachs said in a note on Friday those yields could end the year at 3.75%.“Investors don’t appear to have much confidence in the Fed’s ability to engineer a so-called soft landing,” said Danielle Poli, Co-Portfolio Manager of Oaktree Diversified Income Fund.