abc.net.au/news/australia-to-enter-recession-next-year-deutsche-bank-says/101651884If investment firm Deutsche Bank's forecasts hold true, Australia will enter a recession next year.Deutsche Bank expects Australia's unemployment rate to rise by one percentage point to 4.
However, the bank has not worked with the accepted definition of "technical recession" to produce its forecast.Instead, Deutsche Bank looked at where it believes the unemployment rate is heading."We expect Australia's unemployment rate to end 2023 at 4.5 per cent, that is, one percentage point higher than the current unemployment rate at 3.5 per cent," Deutsche Bank chief economist Phil O'Donoghoe said.
"If our forecast is realised, that would qualify as a recession on our definition, even if — as our forecasts assume – gross domestic product avoids two consecutive quarters of negative growth," he said."From a welfare perspective, a one percentage point rise in the unemployment rate within a year is a far more useful description," Mr O'Donoghoe argued.
they wouldn't know. their forecasts are usually wrong.
It's all a matter of what ingredients you add/ numbers, as to what kind of cake you get.
Is this the same bank repossessing Trump's famous properties in Florida?
Glad I have sold my house, just in the process of buying another. Smaller mortgage, out of Sydney to Hervey Bay. Hopefully all settled before Christmas. Bring on the simple lifestyle. Can’t wait.
Already in it duh
Investment bank invents new measure of recession and ABC report it. There much better headline.
Energy prices will continue to go up so will interest rates. Rba could have avoided this by including house prices in the CPI calculation.
No kidding 👎
Wait a minute, 4.5% unemployed rate is pretty good and healthy. A recession like this should be celebrated.
Nuh, It's not next year. In fact, it has been since Morrison took office.
Major bank desperately betting on a recession* FTFY.
Recession is a state of mind. Doesn't mean a lot to the average person
They’re not meant to say that
Weren't we already in one .... 😂🤡 Media can never make up it's mind.
Germany tends to forget that we are the lucky country.
If we're lucky...🫤