U.S. job market little affected by pandemic, say researchers

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For all the tumult and disruptions of the coronavirus pandemic, U.S. labor markets have come out on the other side not far from the strong conditions that prevailed before the crisis, a paper presented at a Boston Fed research conference said.

Almost all of the hit the U.S. labor market took in 2020, when COVID-19 struck, was tied to temporary layoffs which were swiftly rescinded, said the paper presented on Saturday.

“I think if we were going to see large scale changes, we would have seen them by this point,” said Lisa Kahn, an economics professor at the University of Rochester, who was one of the co-authors. Fears the pandemic would cause deep and lasting damage to the economy generated a historically aggressive campaign of stimulus by the government and the Federal Reserve, as elected officials and central bankers were mindful that the weaker policy response to the Great Recession over a decade ago led to a slow recovery for the economy.

“By raising rates, we are aiming to slow the economy and bring labor demand into better balance with supply. The intent is not a significant downturn,” Boston Fed leader Susan Collins said on Friday in remarks that opened the conference at her bank. Collins was optimistic there is a pathway to price stability that entails only a modest unemployment rate increase.

 

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