Monday’s punishing selloff could be the beginning of the next leg lower for stocks as a sense of complacency has taken hold in markets following a stellar October and November, several strategists told MarketWatch.
“Investors have gotten too complacent, as the SPX is turning down from its year-long downtrend resistance just as it did in March and August,” Krinsky said in comments emailed to MarketWatch. Before Monday’s session, the S&P 500 had risen more than 16% off the intraday lows reached on Oct. 13, the day stocks staged a historic turnaround following the release of hotter-than-expected inflation data from September.
“Markets were just too complacent about policy uncertainty and what 2023 holds for corporate earnings. When we get to sub 20 VIX ,it doesn’t take much for markets to roll over,” Colas said in an email. To be sure, economic data released in recent days points to a relatively robust U.S. economy in the fourth quarter. Jobs data released Friday showed the U.S. economy continued to add jobs at a solid clip in November, despite reports of widespread layoffs by technology companies and banks.
Even if yields do continue to fall, the dynamic where lower Treasury yields help boost stock prices may have reached a point of diminishing returns, Krinsky explained.
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