With 2023 now well underway, there are some business sectors that are at the front line of what are likely to be the most important political, social and economic developments of the year. We take a deep dive into these sectors and look at the potential downside and upside cases for each, and at the people at the centre of it all.Government intervention in energy markets reached a new high last year and it’s not going away.
In that situation, the government is forced to trigger the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism to curb LNG exports and multi-billion-dollar long-term LNG sales contracts with valuable Asian trading partners are broken. Although all eyes will be on the yet-to-be-appointed new CEO of AGL, there are also questions around Cannon-Brookes’ longer-term intentions at the company, while important progress is due this year at another of his energy investments: the Sun Cable solar export project to Singapore.
The most disastrous scenario is if Xi Jinping moves against Taiwan, which would have dire consequences for regional security and global trade.Australia’s big iron ore miners will be hoping the Chinese economy levels out and the price of the steel-making ingredient remains strong for longer. That will also suit coal producers, along with a continuation of the disruption in the world energy market that sent thermal coal prices soaring last year.
This gives bankers and private capital providers a base on which to calculate borrowing costs, hit the capital markets for debt and equity, and finance a deluge of acquisitions from infrastructure to healthcare.