Global economic growth is forecast to barely clear 2 per cent this year, according to a Reuters poll of economists who said the greater risk was a further downgrade to their view, at odds with widespread optimism in markets since the start of the year.
But economists as a whole were much less upbeat, paring back growth forecasts for this year and next from 2.3 per cent and 3.0 per cent, respectively, in an October 2022 poll to 2.1 per cent and 2.8 per cent. Their more dour mood flew in the face of some notable upgrades by banks in recent weeks. More than two-thirds of respondents, 130 of 195, said the greater risk to their world growth outlook was that it would be even slower than what they currently expect.
“However … the range of scenarios ahead is truly broad, and yet the market seems to have settled for a happy median that seems the least likely to transpire.” Nearly all major central banks were expected to hold interest rates steady through the end of this year, a conclusion also at odds with rate futures, which expect easing in the fourth quarter.
The BoE was forecast to lift its Bank Rate by 50 basis points on Feb. 2 to 4.00 per cent and then deliver a quarter-percentage-point hike in March before pausing.