Business Maverick: Russian Economy Shrank 2.1% Last Year, Less Than Once Expected

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Russia’s economy contracted 2.1% last year, defying the worst fears of a major recession as surging commodity exports helped offset the impact of US and European sanctions imposed over President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

The preliminary result was better than the 3% decline officials expected as recently as the early fall and far short of the 10% drop some forecasters saw when the sanctions first hit just over a year ago.Hardest-hit were wholesale and retail trade, as well as manufacturing and transport, the Federal Statistics Service said on Monday, while mining, agriculture, construction and government spending grew last year.“It’s a good result,” said Dmitry Polevoy, economist at Locko Bank.

The central bank projects growth may resume this year. Bloomberg Economics estimates that the economy will lose $190 billion in gross domestic product by 2026 relative to its pre-war trajectory.

 

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