Perfect storm in Minnesota labor market is worrying harbinger for the Fed

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Demand for Daikin Applied Americas Inc's climate control equipment is soaring, and worker recruitment is in hyperdrive, with hiring trips to women's shelters and immigrant support groups and an open door for applicants with no high school degree or manufacturing experience.

For Minnesota's healthcare industry, an estimated 5,000 open nursing positions have sparked the invention of a new specialty, the nurse retentionist who is focused on convincing colleagues to stay on the job. It has also prompted talk of capping workloads and led to up to an 18% pay increase over three years for unionized nurses.

After raising starting wages from $17 an hour to around $24 and overhauling hiring strategies, Drees still has 200 open jobs at this and two nearby facilities, where he is hoping to add to current staffing of 1,200.

Recent Bureau of Labor Statistics data suggest that while some key occupational gaps were driven by the pandemic, others were well-established when the health crisis struck in 2020, and continue to fuel the high demand for workers the Fed wants to ease. On the upside, there is some evidence for a hope shared by many Fed officials that as the economy slows, companies will trim the current high level of job openings but not fire employees who may be hard to recruit back.

The U.S. as a whole isn't there yet. But recent Congressional Budget Office projections estimated that by around 2040 the net number of births over deaths will approach zero, with any population increase from then the result of immigration.Juan Munhen moved to Faribault from Brazil last year to join his wife, who is originally from the city.

The number of nurses only willing to work part-time, he said, has surged from between 30% and 40% before the pandemic to 57% last year.

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