Amid waves of layoffs continuing to hit some of the nation’s largest employers, the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up last month despite the labor market gaining significantly more jobs than expected—adding to mixed messages about the economy as the Federal Reserve decides whether it should pause its aggressive campaign to tame rising prices for the first time in more than a year.
So why the disparity? The government relies on a survey of establishments, or companies, to gauge the monthly change in employment, whereas it surveys households, or individuals, to determine the unemployment rate; this household survey showed the number of employed people fell by 310,000 last month.
According to the Labor Department, the establishment survey will count employees working at more than one job separately for each appearance, while the household survey will only count each person once—no matter how many jobs they have—because it surveys individuals. In a morning note, Vital Knowledge founder Adam Crisafulli said it seems the data is still being skewed “enormously” by Covid-linked distortions, creating mixed signals about the economy.hitting some of the nation’s largest tech employers, the unemployment rate fell to a 54-year low of 3.4% in January and has remained near historically low levels this year.
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