Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group“Headline CPI prints at +4.0% YoY, which now takes the 3-month annualised rate to +2.21%. The Fed have long targeted 2.0%. PAUSE.”
Trading firm QCP Capital likewise believed that “consensus has it right” — that the Fed would not raise rates further — at least this time. “Based on high frequency indicators, US inflation is falling rapidly, which will enable the FOMC to make this week’s meeting their first pause in more than a year,” it wrote in aQCP acknowledged that subsequent FOMC meetings may yield different results, in order to “appease” more hawkish committee members.
“Furthermore we think the easing of financial conditions as a result of this massive melt-up equity rally will play at the back of their minds,” it added.Multiple commentators meanwhile noted that BTC/USD had closed the gap in CME Bitcoin futures from the weekend.
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