In the meantime, the Bank of England raised interest rates on Thursday. Most observers were surprised by the half point increase after expecting just a quarter point bump. Following that news, the ECB announced they too would remain aggressive with respect to interest rates. Both the ECB and our own Federal Reserve Open Market Committee have meetings scheduled for the end of July.
One area of the economy I’ve mentioned and continue to monitor is housing. Consumer spending is often driven by the housing market. If housing prices are increasing, people tend to be more willing to spend money. Because of that, I believe it will be difficult to get inflation to fall unless we also see a drop in housing prices. We may have seen the first signs of that yesterday when it was reported median prices for existing home sales fell a little over 3%, year-over-year.
Finally, I want to mention market volatility, or as the case may be, a lack thereof. Yesterday, the VIX closed below 13. We haven’t seen volatility this low since the beginning of 2020. Barring an unforeseen event, it’s hard to see what would cause volatility to increase between now and the 4of July holiday. However, I’d also caution that it’s when things are very quiet and markets seem to have little to say that something relatively minor can have an outsized impact.
tastytrade, Inc. commentary for educational purposes only. This content is not, nor is intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any investment product or strategy is suitable for any person.
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