Emerging-market central banks are joining their developed peers in pushing back against expectations of a rapid switch to cutting interest rates, souring the outlook for developing-nation bonds.
“The inflation outlook for emerging markets is becoming less certain, in contrast to the broad-based disinflation of the past four-to-five months,” said Jon Harrison, managing director for emerging-market macro strategy at GlobalData TS Lombard in London. “EM local-currency bonds could also be at risk in the coming months from a further surge in the dollar or more Fed rate hikes, but we are not at that point yet.
“Overall, we expect a longer policy pause by central banks in the region, with the timing of our forecast for policy pivots to rate cuts pushed further into 2024 for most,” wrote a team at Barclays plc including Rahul Bajoria in a recent note. Brazil exception Latin America is seeing a similar move toward more hawkish pricing, most noticeably in Chile, Mexico and Colombia. Only in Brazil has the market turned more dovish after the central bank cut its benchmark rate by a larger-than-expected 50 basis points on Aug. 2.