Why stocks may just roll into an October correction

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The headwinds are beginning to outnumber the tailwinds in the markets.

H&M warned about a sales plunge in September, blaming warm weather in Europe for delaying purchases of winter clothes. But hey, my H&M store at Roosevelt Field in New York has been a little empty on the weekend too.this week about rising credit delinquencies hitting retailers, with specific concerns cited for Kohl's and Nordstrom., with execs blaming rising interest rates for consumers delaying auto purchases. The company also saw a year-over-year pickup in credit losses.

Are we witnessing the lagged effects of Fed policy? Probably. Are households really feeling that inflation is slowing? Probably not. If people aren’t buying homes or used cars because of higher interest rates, is that a problem for stocks? Yes, it should be. A brown bear inspects a pumpkin in its enclosure at Pairi Daiza animal park in Brugelette on October 30, 2020. that US consumers are trading down to cheaper whiskey.

Take this all together, and nothing hints that sentiment in markets stands to improve in October — at least not in the early part of the month ahead of big bank earnings, which stand to capture the aforementioned consumer weakness. "Our work suggests this correction in time and price has further to go, but at this point, we are still viewing this in the context of a choppy trading range," Truist chief investment officer Keith Lerner told me.

 

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