The stock market has been under pressure from the bond market, where the yield on the 10-year Treasury briefly touched 5% Thursday evening for the first time since 2007. High yields make borrowing more expensive for everyone, and they slow the economy while dragging on investment prices. The 10-year yield eased Friday, but only after hanging near 4.99% in the morning. Crude oil prices fluctuated, and gold’s price rose.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury was sitting at 4.91% after easing from within a hair of 5% earlier in the morning. It’s been catching up to the Federal Reserve’s main interest rate, which is already above 5.25% and at its highest level since 2001. A barrel of benchmark U.S. oil fell 62 cents to settle at $88.75. It’s been bouncing around since the latest Hamas-Israel war began, after leaping from $70 to more than $93 through the summer. Brent crude, the international standard, slipped 22 cents to $92.16 per barrel.
But he also noted it hasn't been a reliable signal when very big shocks occur, such as the period around Lehman Brothers' collapse in 2008 or the Russia-Ukraine war early last year. Maybe a jump for oil prices above $100 or the 10-year Treasury yield shooting above 5% could act as similar very big shocks this time around.
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