The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index SPX, bounced off the lower trend line of the bear market last week. The ensuing rally has been strong, fueled technically by oversold conditions and a favorable seasonal pattern.
On the other hand, if this is merely an oversold rally, expect it to top out just above the declining 20-day Moving Average of SPX, which is currently at about 4270. Market breadth has finally improved, and the NYSE breadth oscillator has generated and confirmed a buy signal. However, the “stocks only” breadth oscillator is still not on a buy signal. It is quite close to one, though, and it could be confirmed today if breadth is positive.
The construct of volatility derivatives came perilously close to a sell signal, but never achieved that status. Now, it is improving to a much more bullish outlook for stocks. The term structure of the VIX futures is now sloping upwards again after the SPX rally and after the FOMC meeting. The 9-day CBOE Volatility Index remains elevated above VIX, but that is mostly due to the fact that the Unemployment Report is due tomorrow.
Long 2 EQR EQR, +1.05% Nov 60 puts: Roll down to the Nov 52.5 puts. We will continue to hold as long as the weighted put-call ratio for EQR remains on a sell signal. Long 1 SPY Nov 434 call short 1 SPY Nov 452 call: This spread was bought in line with the CBOE Equity-only put-call ratio buy signal. We are holding without a stop initially. Roll the whole spread up if the long side becomes at least 8 points in-the-money.
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