— have pointed to a cooldown underway in the U.S. labor market. The official data, especially on growth in employers' payrolls, has mostly not., there's little doubt that the labor market is shifting into a lower gear. That should diminish inflation pressures and make the Fed more confident it is done raising interest rates.
A broader measure of unemployment that counts people working part-time who want full-time work, and those who have given up looking for a job out of frustration, rose to 7.2% from 7% in September, and 6.5% at the end of last year. "The decline in real disposable income last month suggests that consumer spending could cool further in the coming months, putting yet more downward pressure on the labor market."If the jobless rate rises just another couple of ticks and stays elevated, it will invoke the Sahm Rule, a useful rule-of-thumb indicator that a recession is underway.