| A prospect that might have seemed unthinkable just a couple short weeks ago is coming into view for bond traders: The potential for US Treasuries to post an annual gain for the first time since 2020.
“The economic trajectory is lower,” said Gregory Faranello, head of US rates trading and strategy for AmeriVet Securities. “We’ve been looking for rates to correct lower.” The outlook for bonds also brightened this week after the Treasury announced that it would lift debt issuance in the November-to-January period by less than many on Wall Street expected.Entering this year, the thinking among bond bulls was that the economy would soon wilt in the face of the Fed’s rate increases, forcing the central bank to pivot to easing. That has hardly panned out, as growth proves resilient and inflation remains stubbornly elevated.
The global backdrop is also supporting the bond bulls. Recession looms for the euro area, and China’s housing market is struggling.