Retail’s Earnings Are Here. What to Expect.

With Valentine’s Day candy already marked down to get it off the shelves, the December holiday season feels like a faint memory.

By all accounts, the 2023 holiday season went better than most retailers and analysts feared. Retail sales were a little less than 4% higher than a year earlier for November and December. And while that marks a deceleration from the past three post-pandemic holiday seasons, it was still on the higher end of most industry watchers’ forecasts.

Tarlowe believes value-oriented companies, such as Walmart, TJX Cos. and Burlington Stores, are likely to post strong results as people looked to stretch their budgets over the holidays. Companies catering to higher-income customers whose brands are doing well—think Abercrombie and Lululemon—are also well positioned, analysts say.

“More often than not, guidance for the next year overshadows the 4th quarter reports,” wrote D.A. Davidson analyst Michael Baker.

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