A stuttering recovery in lithium prices is providing a fresh reminder of why the dramatic rally of recent years was followed by an even more breathtaking collapse: a fast-expanding industry that is more prepared than ever to keep pumping out supplies.
For much of the past year, that has meant reconciling a massive new wave of supply that caught many by surprise, while evidence mounts that EV demand is coming in weaker than expected. “When the thing turns, will there be a ridiculous spike like there was last time? I hope not,” said Joe Lowry, founder of advisory firm Global Lithium LLC. “You’re just going to bring in more garbage into the system and more volatility, which makes it harder for everybody.”
But then the bubble popped. The high prices drew a wave of supply, including from new, small scale producers in places like China and Australia, which operate at high costs but can quickly switch on and off depending on the strength of the market. Lithium miners have been hit hard by the plunge — top producer Albemarle Corp. reported a loss in the fourth quarter, while others have also seen their earnings plunge dramatically.
Lithium’s bright long-term demand outlook and its strategic importance to carmakers and governments could also underpin ongoing funding of new projects even in a depressed price environment.
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