The biggest question for the market entering the second quarter: Recession or just a soft patch?

Hearing the superlatives applied to Wall Street's fast start — the S&P 500 up 13 percent, its best first quarter in 21 years — might leave the impression the bulls have routed the doubters decisively.

Those observers who defer strictly to the"message of the market" argue this defensive turn — combined with a furious bond rally and sudden outcry for a Federal Reserve rate cut — is a stark warning about heightened risk of recession and corporate-profit downturn. Just to detail the market's defensive emphasis in recent weeks, among the industry groups with the highest proportion of stocks in a confirmed uptrend, defined as having a 50-day average price above its 200-day, are utilities, software, real estate and household products. Featured among the weakest: energy, autos, banks and transportation.

A conservative approach has been nicely rewarded. The classic 60 percent stocks/40 percent bonds portfolio has done unusually well. The Vanguard Balanced Index fund , which pursues roughly this approach, has a 9.5-percent total return this year, its best quarter in nearly a decade." The largest in the latter category, iShares Edge MSCI Minimum Volatility ETF has grown to $23.5 billion in assets, as investors embrace a portfolio constructed to be less jumpy than the S&P 500 yet has dramatically outperformed it. The fund is at a record high, more than 2 percent above its September peak, even as the S&P itself remains more than 3 percent below its September best.

The bulls can lean on a few things. Very strong first quarters have tended to continue higher at least a bit through the year. Semiconductors are among the few"risk-on" groups leading things. The pullbacks, as noted, have been muted.

Markets don’t ricochet up as fast as they go down. The natural movement of this market has been distorted. Close to all time highs on deteriorating fundamentals. The setup for late April is going to be a huge downfall.

Should the media displays only the news and don’t tries manipulate our decision because the media has no credibility anymore .

No recession...this is due to China and Europe slowing down and uncertainty of China/tariff issue. Final point, with US economic indicators soaring positively, this is a media ploy to impact 2020 elections!

Scare campaigns from the media or mind control or manipulation .

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