. While analysts think profits will start growing again in the second quarter and wind up with growth of about 5% this year, Wilson expects an"earnings recession," meaning at least two quarters of flat or negative earnings growth.
That's illustrated by this chart. Wilson says analysts are expecting earnings growth to quickly recover to its 2017 pace, but he doesn't see much evidence that that's going to happen. Analysts expect company earnings to improve later this year, but Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley has doubts about that pickup.Earnings consistently come in better than analysts expect, which might create some hope that profits will end up a bit better than the first quarter of last year. Wilson warns investors not to expect that because estimates have fallen so sharply. When that happens, he said, companies typically don't beat expectations by very much.
"A lowered bar into the quarter does note mean the likelihood of a beat is greater," he wrote."The forecasts for have been lowered substantially and we do not think we are going to see a beat big enough to lift index growth into positive territory."simply click here to claim your deal and get access to all exclusive Business Insider PRIME content.
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