It will be a holiday-shortened trading week, with markets in the US Closed today for Memorial Day. We had some typical holiday-like price action on Friday, with light trading volumes and the typical implied volatility selling that you tend to see ahead of a three-day weekend.is expected to increase by 0.2% m/m, down from 0.3% in March, and rise by 2.8% y/y in line with March. Right now, the estimates seem pretty mixed between the 0.2% and 0.
Even if the number were to come in at 0.24%, or the surveyed average of 0.25%, the 3-month annualized rate of change for core PCE would dip to about 3.4%, down from 4.4%, but still higher than the 2.2% annualized rate from June to September and the 1.5% rate from September until December. Oil is on the radar this week after it tested support and bounced off $76 last week. Also, the RSI has formed a bullish divergence, with a higher lower on the RSI and a lower low on the price. We probably need to see it clear the $80 to have greater confidence that a change in trend has occurred.data, which matters significantly because it tends to lead the CPI OER index by around 18 months.
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