Foreign investment ‘highlights concerns around the attractiveness of doing business in Canada,’ says BMO economist

BMO economist Shelly Kaushik notes that Canada is far from a popular destination for foreign direct investment,

“Following a multi-year period of soft foreign direct investment inflows, Canada hit a new milestone in Q1 — flows marked a net divestment from the country for the first time in 14 years. True, the figure was weighed by M&A activity in the finance and insurance sector — but still, it’s notable that other activities didn’t provide enough offset.

“The sector looks attractive on our valuation model, which takes into account the sector’s own valuation relative to a long-term history as well as the sector’s valuation relative to the broader S&P 500. The sector is seeing mostly upward revisions on both earnings and revenues. Though it is important to note that earnings have more positive revisions momentum than revenues. After reaching a peak in mid-April of this year, flows have recently lost momentum.

“Political polarization, protectionism, war, inflation, supply means secular “buyers’ strike” in global government bonds is valid; but cyclical always able to trump secular and we say 3Ps of Positioning, Profits, Policy means H2 reversal of “ABB” Anything But Bonds trade; buy any-dip in bond prices & for credit & stocks “sell the first cut” still the call.

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