"This year, we think just as everyone is coming over to the no recession side, the soft landing side, we think the chances of recession are much higher not only than Wall Street expects, but that is currently being priced in by markets," Riesgo explains."So we don't think it's a done deal that a recession happens in late 2024, early 2025. But we do have a lot of warning signs that things are deteriorating rather rapidly, especially in the labor market.
I know it's not being reflected in the employment data, but we're seeing it in other labor market data, especially on the demand side. That's if things continue on their current course, the other area where we're seeing a lot of weakness is in the US consumer and we're seeing the US consumer becoming a lot more uh discerning as to where they want to deploy new dollars.
It didn't happen because those us excess savings were quite large, but we're finally starting to see it come in. If things are going bad, uh they're still making money because they're almost trading like utilities. And I'm talking about uh uh things like uh materials, things like industrials, uh financial, some of these other sectors that have so far lagged the, you know, the, the, the, the more dominant parts of the market this year like uh uh tech utilities and some of the more other defensive ones.Trump Media share price down 39%: Why the DJT stock keeps falling