The answer to this question often varies depending on whom you ask. And most answers will come with all sorts of caveats including: "Well, this president inherited the policies of the last president" or "That president’s term was affected by an exogenous shock" or "Does the president’s party control Congress?" or "Are we measuring from Election Day or Inauguration Day?" and so on.
"What matters more is how the economy, profits, inflation, and Fed policy all line up, not who is in the White House," Detrick wrote. The winners in business get bigger as their revenue grows. Some get big enough to be listed in the stock market. In this process, Key categories including online, building materials, health and personal care, furniture, clothes, and electronics grew. Gas stations led weakness, falling 3.0%. Motor vehicle and parts sales declined by 2.0%.. From JPMorgan: "As of 08 Jul 2024, our Chase Consumer Card spending data was 0.3% above the same day last year. Based on the Chase Consumer Card data through 08 Jul 2024, our estimate of the U.S. Census July control measure of retail sales m/m is 0.15%.
At the same time, we also know that stocks are discounting mechanisms — meaning that prices will have bottomed before the Fed signals a major dovish turn in monetary policy.