Artificial intelligence has been the key driver for the stock market this year, but another catalyst will start playing a greater role in how well the market does: the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Election Day is still more than 100 days away, yet the campaign cycle has already been historic. Former President Donald Trump took a lead in the polls and betting markets over President Joe Biden after a disastrous debate for the sitting commander in chief.
That gain is well above the 10%-11% average advance seen in presidential election years. "There's more room for this to go, whether you look at strength from the first quarter or strength from the first half," said John Lynch, chief investment officer at Comerica Wealth Management. Data from CFRA shows the S & P 500 averages a 4.9% gain in the second half of an election year after posting a gain in the first six months of the year.