This week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee . Will they stick by their forecast of a single rate cut this year or capitulate to financial markets that are pricing in multiple cuts this year?
, upending the Fed’s plans and calling into question whether inflation really was so strongly on a path to two percent that it would continue to decline even in the face of rate cuts. Fed officials decided that instead of rushing to cut, it would be prudent to wait for more evidence that inflation really would keep falling.In the months since then, inflation has come down. The personal consumption expenditures price index, which had increased at a 3.
rates after just one-quarter of benign data. It would be far safer for the Fed to simply hold rates at their current level and wait for another quarter or two to confirm that inflation really is moving down sustainably.. The government’s broadest measure of growth, gross domestic product, expanded at a 2.8 percent rate in the second quarter. Income after taxes and inflation rose by one percent.
The headline S&P Global “flash” purchasing managers index rose from 54.8 in June to 55.0 in July, the highest reading since April 2022. It showed that theWhile there has been a lot of talk about the labor market cooling, it’s important to note that this has been a very slow process. Unemployment has climbed slowly and unevenly, which looks more like normalization rather than a weakening of the labor market.
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