There’s no sign of an imminent recession in the latest earnings reporting season. With more than 90% of theS&P 500 operating earnings per share rose 10.9% y/y during the quarter to a record high of $60.19.Just before the start of the Q2 earnings reporting season, during the week of June 28, the analysts’ consensus forecast had implied an 9.1% increase in Q2 EPS.
That’s our job as economists and strategists. We correctly pushed back against the consensus recession forecast in 2022 and 2023. We are doing so again this year. We might even do so over the next two years.Meanwhile, if the no-show recession continues not to show up, S&P 500 forward EPS should continue to be a bullish leading indicator for actual EPS as well as for the economy. Forward earnings rose to yet another record-high $265.67 during the August 8 week.
The S&P 500 profit margin rose to 12.3% during Q2. That’s still below its record high of 13.7% during Q2-2021.
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