It’s been a busy week for economic policy as the race for the White House continues between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.talk Harris’s new economic plan for small businesses as well as some new projections from Goldman Sachs about the future of the US economy. “Goldman Sachs finds that if Trump gets elected and he enacts his whole plan…the economy would actually shrink in 2025 rather than grow,” Newman says.
We'll be getting into all of that and really what this is doing for American businesses and of course, election day just two months away at this point.Can the markets really give us an accurate gauge of what's going to happen here?So taking a look first at what you've been watching this week, Ben, let's kick it off with you.
That has been getting some headlines in the Harris campaign grabbed onto that and sent notices around, but Goldman Sachs is not the only uh organization saying this, I mean, there are a lot of organizations, especially some of the economy, economic forecasting firms that have trying to estimate the impact of the Trump and Harris plans.And they've all basically find the same thing, which is that Trump has two real turds in his economic plan.
So a lot of these tax ideas would presumably be on the table and, and as part of the discussion in the end of the year.And what I would add to that is, um, every time you hear one of the candidates saying my, my policy or is my plan is usually what that means is I would do this if my party uh had unified control of Congress and I could get everything I want through Congress and legislation, which you can't even get done even when your party does control Congress.
Um, that would be the kind of thing like we had in 2000 and even with what happened last time, um, where we had some sort of undecided election situation. Uh, it's coming up with new ideas in the White House best performing, uh you know, markets under democratic presidents and Republican Congress is about 16% change uh for the Dow S and P. That's kind of what I'm thinking.
But there's this overarching, you know, macro trend with A I the technology um you know, boom that we're having that's, that's pushed the, the performance this year way above all the averages but we've seen some bullish election year, you know, behavior so far and we're seeing this sort of volatility tick up here in September as we get into the election.
And then you've got, you know, this is, this is a market that's driven by institutions, institutions operate on a quarterly and an annual basis.We got that week after, you know, uh options, expiration, quadruple, witching really weak. And I, I'm not, you know, saying we're gonna have a similar kind of sell off, but I think we're gonna have another great buying opportunity in October and as we say in the almanac, late October is a great time to buy stocks, especially tech and small caps.
Um I think it's really getting through the election and getting into, you know, a AAA new cycle, I mean, generally, um postle years uh used to be much weaker, going back to 1896 when the Dow started, but since 85 it's the best year of a four year cycle, about 17%. Uh but I, I think the fact that Congress controls the purse strings and that's where the laws are passed and Republicans are generally fiscally more conservative or have been, there's been some pretty, you know, uh spend happy Republicans, but mostly in the White House, I think there is some causation there that you've got a much, you know, um more cautious body, skeptical body about spending more money uh when it's run by Republicans and that's what, what the history has...
But something I want to look at a voter block that a lot of people perhaps haven't really thought about the mcdonald's voter at least when it comes to relatability, which can be a little bit cringe for some of the candidates as we've seen so far.Well, the, the reasons are pretty widespread concerning mcdonald's a couple of stats that are kind of blow me away.
She was raising money but she was working with people that were raising families on it and it's sort of part of her message, part of her way to be relatable and, and then Trump who, you know, has eaten a lot of mcdonald's and he's never worked there, but he's, he's been, he's been a very associated as a mcdonald's customer, he's been pushing back.There's a, there's a little less impact on mcdonald's itself.