Stock market today: Dow closes at an all-time high after recouping its losses from early September

NEW YORK — The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at another all-time high after recouping its losses from early September. The S&P 500 rose close to its own record, but was held back by losses in Big Tech companies like Apple and Nvidia. The Dow added 0.6% Monday, the S&P 500 rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq composite fell 0.5%. The mixed results came ahead of the most anticipated meeting of the Federal Reserve in years.

Alcoa also jumped 6.5% after saying it would sell its ownership stake in a Saudi Arabian joint venture to Saudi Arabian Mining Co. for $950 million in stock and $150 million in cash. But drops for some influential Big Tech stocks kept indexes in check, including declines of 2.8% for Apple and 2.3% for Nvidia. They're among the market's most influential stocks because they're among the largest by market value.

The only question is by how much the Fed will cut. Traders are shifting more bets toward a larger-than-usual move of half a percentage point, according to data from CME Group. They’re anticipating a 61% chance the Fed will go beyond the more traditional cut of a quarter of a percentage point. That’s up from 50% on Friday and just 30% a week ago.

A Fed cut of half a percentage point would likely be the best case for the stock market in the very short term, according to Michael Wilson and other strategists at Morgan Stanley. But that's only if the Fed can convince investors it's not getting forced into a bigger-than-usual cut because of worries about a recession, among other factors.

That was despite a report in the morning showing manufacturing in New York state returned to growth in September. That surprised economists, who were expecting another month of contraction for an area of the economy that’s been hit hard by high interest rates.

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