Markets React to Japan's New Hawkish Leader, ECB Inflation Miss, and Stellantis-Renault Merger Speculation

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Japan,LDP,BOJ

Global markets experienced significant volatility today following the election of a hawkish leader in Japan, an unexpected drop in inflation for France and Spain, and revived speculation about a merger between Stellantis and Renault. Japanese Yen strengthened sharply after Ishiba's victory, while Nikkei futures plummeted. Meanwhile, the ECB's dovish stance amid weakening inflation data fueled bets on further rate cuts.

Notes/observations - Japan LDP party elects hawkish former defense min Ishiba as its new leader ; Previously expressed support for BOJ rate hikes. Ishiba won in knockout round against dovish Takaichi. Japanese Yen heavily strengthened, moving USD/JPY to 143 from 146.4 earlier. Nikkei futures down >1000 points since cash close.

- Denmark Aug Retail Sales M/M: +0.4% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.7% prior. - Hungary Aug Unemployment Rate: 4.2% v 4.2%e. - France Sept Preliminary CPI M/M: -1.2% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.6%e. - France Sept Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -1.2% v -0.8%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.9%e. - France Aug PPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: -6.3% v -5.7% prior. - France Aug Consumer Spending M/M: +0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v -0.6%e. - Spain Q2 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.8% v 0.8% prelim; Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.9% prelim.

 

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