earnings per share forecast to $268, marking an 11% year-over-year increase, up from their previous estimate of $256 . Also, they have introduced a 2026 EPS estimate of $288, reflecting a 7% growth, while maintaining their full-year 2024 EPS forecast at $241.
“Our 2025 and 2026 EPS estimates imply a 3% negative revision to bottom-up consensus each year, slightly less negative than the historical pattern,” strategists said in a recent note. Over the next three months, the bank anticipates minimal shifts in the macro environment. However, it cautions that valuations could fluctuate as markets digest the potential policy outcomes of the 2024 U.S. elections.
Strategists assume the market will capitalize EPS of $274 by year-end—representing a 1% reduction from bottom-up consensus—and $300 in 12 months, a 2% revision. This implies a 10% price return over the next year, slightly below the median 12% return since 1980.They also outline potential risks to their forecast. If the P/E multiple stays at 22x, the S&P 500 could reach 6600 in 12 months, delivering a 15% upside.