A new study from New York Fed claims tariffs imposed during Trump’s first term inflicted trillions of dollars in economic harm and a serious “welfare loss” on Americans, yet the Trump years saw unprecedented, the Fed study arrives with breathless findings of calamity. According to the Fed, tariff announcements wiped out $4.1 trillion in U.S. stock market value, inflicted a three percent “welfare loss,” and sowed uncertainty across the economy.
that overstates short-term volatility while ignoring the economy’s remarkable adaptability. They are an artifact of the study’s method rather than a description of the economic reality.At the heart of the Fed’s study is an event-study approach thatand then looking at them only within a narrow 10-day window following the announcements. The idea is simple: tariffs roiled markets, causing immediate declines in stock valuations, which the study equates with economic damage.during the 2018-2019 U.S.
. Stocks move on sentiment as much as fundamentals, and tariff announcements created plenty of sentiment and negative headlines that may have spooked investors over fear of retaliation, uncertainty over supply chains, and speculation about global trade.
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