Those fissures could spread throughout the world-wide economy, potentially sending world-wide gross domestic product, or GDP, to its lowest annual pace of in 10 years, according to research from Oxford Economics, led by economists Adam Slater, and John Payne in a research report dated June 24.
An Oxford Economics’ proprietary gauge of housing conditions in the globe shows that home prices have declined by 10% and investments in houses have shrunk by 8%. The researchers said that while home values globally aren’t falling outright, the pace of expansion has stalled substantially, which has raised some alarm bells. “Moreover, high house price valuations point to a risk of prices falling in the quarters ahead,” Slater and Payne wrote. The economists say that retreat in prices could spill over to the rest of the globe.
And lower interest rates likely soon from the Federal Reserve, if market expectations are any reflection, are likely to further stimulate home buying in months to come, especially with benchmark yields hovering around two-year lows. The 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, -1.52% a gauge for everything from mortgages to home loans, was at 2.02% as of Monday afternoon trade.
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