News Formal

The market's favorite recession indicator has been wrong twice since 1950. Here's why some investors say it's flashing a false positive again.

  • 📰 BusinessInsider
  • ⏱ Reading Time:
  • 25 sec. here
  • 2 min. at publisher
  • 📊 Quality Score:
  • News: 13%
  • Publisher: 51%

Canada News News

Canada Canada Latest News,Canada Canada Headlines

Even if a recession does follow this particular inversion, it doesn't necessarily mean that the recession is right around the corner.

A yield-curve inversion has preceded every US recession since 1950. But not every instance of inversion was followed by a recession. In fact, the popular signal — which flashes when the two-year Treasury yield tops the 10-year — has been wrong on at least two occasions since 1950. Some investors think the current yield curve inversion could be yet another false-positive. If the Federal Reserve keeps easing monetary conditions and a trade resolution is reached, it could un-invert.

A yield-curve inversion has preceded every US recession since 1950. But not every instance of inversion was followed by a recession. In fact, the popular signal — which flashes when the two-year Treasury yield tops the 10-year — has been wrong on at least two occasions since 1950. Some investors think the current yield curve inversion could be yet another false-positive. If the Federal Reserve keeps easing monetary conditions and a trade resolution is reached, it could un-invert.

 

Thank you for your comment. Your comment will be published after being reviewed.
Please try again later.
We have summarized this news so that you can read it quickly. If you are interested in the news, you can read the full text here. Read more:

 /  🏆 729. in CA

Canada Canada Latest News, Canada Canada Headlines

Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.

The market's safest assets are offering investors record-low returns — and it's left them no place to hide from recession fears'It's certainly scary when you see yields fall so sharply, and when you see the yield curve inverted,' said Collin Martin of Charles Schwab.
Source: BusinessInsider - 🏆 729. / 51 Read more »

Jim Cramer: Investors must remove political beliefs from investment decisions“You don’t rack up big gains in the market by trying to judge politicians.” This is why MadMoneyOnCNBC's JimCramer says investors must disentangle their investment decisions from political beliefs. MadMoneyOnCNBC jimcramer This isn’t about politics, we’re ignoring truth vs fiction MadMoneyOnCNBC jimcramer Hello MadMoneyOnCNBC jimcramer So if trump is a criminal that is a political belief?
Source: CNBC - 🏆 12. / 72 Read more »