Not surprisingly, opinions vary widely, often along partisan political lines. A year ago, you may recall, President Trump famously predicted that the stock market would crash if he were impeached. Other commentators dismissed that prediction as an idle threat.
I failed to find any significant correlation. Consider a statistic known as the “r-squared,” which reflects the degree to which one data series predicts or explains something else . I failed to find r-squareds above 1% — which is to say that increases or decreases in the probabilities of Trump being impeached couldn’t even explain 1% of stock market gyrations.
My second answer to this “why” question: There were plenty of other things besides impeachment in 1974 and 1998 that can more than account for the stock market’s poor performance on those occasions. As Robert Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA, reminds us: Prior to Nixon’s impeachment, “the U.S. stock market was already in a bear market, triggered by the OPEC oil embargo.
Given these criteria, you’d certainly guess that they would have had a big impact on the markets. But that’s not what the researchers found. On the contrary, they found that the S&P 500’s absolute return on the days these events hit the market was quite small—just 1.46%, which is less than 1 percentage point more than the 0.56% that prevailed on all other days.
MktwHulbert Yes it would but not simply because he is impeached but because higher taxes on all, coupled with green new deal, against the headwinds of global recession WOULD tank the market. No worries. He isn’t getting impeached. He’s getting re-elected! 😎🤑
MktwHulbert Trump soon and pence right behind him. Yup. You will soon see President Nancy pelosi . Yup. It’s in the constitution.
MktwHulbert He will be & must be impeached for Abuse of Power for Personal Gains, Obstruction of justice & Contempt of Congress, besides Money Laundering, Collusion with Russians in 2016 & 10 other Items Mueller cited. He is rogue. Impeach & Remove him before 2020! Find out What VP Pence did
MktwHulbert Wasting your time and as Airways shining your wheels, find something better to do
MktwHulbert Who cares. We don’t protect the S&P we protect democracy.
MktwHulbert The market will crash before then. Just wait until Bernie Sanders bows out for health reasons. 90% of his supporters will slide to Warren. This could happen as early as next week.
MktwHulbert Well it’s not gonna happen so this is just clickbait
MktwHulbert Nope!
MktwHulbert Fake news
MktwHulbert No