Bidding wars are taking a strange turn in the fall housing market

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Cooler weather historically means a cooling off period in the housing market, but that is not the case this fall. After dropping to the lowest level in 8 years, bidding wars are creeping back.

In September, 11% of offers written by Redfin, a national real estate brokerage, faced a bidding war. That is down dramatically from 41% a year ago, but up from the 10% reading in August.

The bidding war rate usually falls about 15 percentage points from the height of the housing season in March to the beginning of the slow season in September, at least according to seasonal patterns from 2013 to 2018. "After the coolest spring home-selling season in at least eight years, homebuying competition didn't have far to fall, but low mortgage rates ultimately drove a modest uptick in bidding wars in late summer when they typically become less common," said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather.

Low mortgage rates are fueling that heat, giving buyers more purchasing power and more incentive to hurry into a home before rates rise again. The average rate on the 30-year fixed is now more than a full percentage point lower than it was last fall.

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Up from 10% to 11%. Wow! Within margin of error, maybe?

Creative Destruction and getting out of the markets for real estate is key.

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