LONDON: From the pinnacle of the City of London's largest skyscraper, Stuart Lipton is wagering a US$1.2 billion bet that the British capital remains a master of the international financial universe no matter what happens with Brexit.
Since the vote to leave the EU, Britain has leapfrogged the United States to become the largest centre for trading interest rate swaps, despite calls by ex-French President Francois Hollande to end London's dominance in clearing euro-denominated derivatives.That London has expanded its influence as an international finance centre is one of the biggest riddles of the United Kingdom's tortuous three year Brexit crisis.
"If you are an Italian banker, who moved out to London 20 years ago, and your kids go to private school around the corner then you are not going to move to Frankfurt," he said.A global hub for trading, lending and investing, London is the largest net exporter of financial services in the world, with the EU accounting for a quarter of the business.
The Bank of England estimates around 4,000 people may have moved by the time Britain has exited the EU. But the key decisions are still taken in London. Oliver Wyman said they stand by their predictions because it is important to distinguish between job losses on the first day of Brexit and over the longer term. The final number will depend upon the level of market access, which is not clear yet.Financial capitals such as London have remarkable longevity and their rise and fall typically happens at a glacial pace, said Youssef Cassis, a professor of economic history who specialises in financial centres.
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