The market's favorite recession indicator has stopped flashing red. But the Duke professor who created it told us everyone should still be prepared for the worst.

Campbell Harvey, the Duke University professor who uncovered the inverted yield curve as a recession indicator, says his model could some day give a false positive signal. It's something that's top of mind right now, as the curve has univerted in recent weeks. But Campbell argues his model isn't broken or flashing a false signal because the same conditions from prior economic downturns are also present now.

Campbell Harvey, the Duke University professor who uncovered the inverted yield curve as a recession indicator, says his model could some day give a false positive signal. It's something that's top of mind right now, as the curve has univerted in recent weeks. But Campbell argues his model isn't broken or flashing a false signal because the same conditions from prior economic downturns are also present now.

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