Banking stocks and sovereign dollar bonds slid for a second day and the cost of insuring exposure to Turkish debt rose further after Erdoganon Sunday, May 14, securing just under the 50% threshold needed to win outright and giving him the lead over opposition rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu, ahead of the May 28 runoff vote.
Longer-dated, dollar-denominated government bonds had the biggest falls in fixed-income markets, although key corporate and banking sector bonds also edged lower. Turkey’s interest rate swap forwards, which are a rough guide for where traders expect the country’s interest rates to be once “risk premia” is added on, are now pricing them at around 27% in a year’s time, compared with a pre-election level of over 40%.
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