The thinking was that the US economy would grind to a halt because the Federal Reserve was effectively slamming the brakes to squash inflation. Businesses would lay off workers and inflation-weary Americans would slash spending. But the case for a 2023 US recession is crumbling for a simple reason: America’s jobs market is way too strong. Hiring unexpectedly accelerated again last month, with employers adding an impressive 339,000 jobs in May.
Friday’s jobs report did offer some conflicting signals, especially in the household survey, which economists put less weight on because it tends to be noisier. The household survey showed the unemployment rate, which had been tied for a 53-year low, jumped by 0.3 percentage points – the most since April 2020 – as employment fell sharply. Yet Wolfers noted the three-month moving average for the unemployment remains extremely low at 3.5%.
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